The Safety Delusion and the Perils of Optimisation

Seeking out safety can be a hard-wired reflex in the face of perceived dangers. However, in most modern contexts, a ‘fight or flight’ response isn’t appropriate or useful. In a business context, safety is an illusion or temporary. Seeking or prioritising safety often leads to poor choices, short-term decisions and limits to your strategic options. Safety can be just as dangerous as danger.

Safety can only ever be relative. One path might be safer than another, but there is rarely a genuinely safe path. What’s more, any perceived safety or advantage isn’t permanent. It just isn’t possible to reach a mythical ‘safety zone’ and stay there. Markets, technology, competitors and customers change, new threats emerge, and what is valued or successful can change dramatically.

The best way to use the concept of safety is to make sure you have as clear a picture as possible of the dangers, possibilities and opportunities around you.

Why is safety dangerous?

The Safety Delusion derives from a particular approach to business. It reflects an almost extremist aversion to risk as if minimising risk correlates directly to success. The reality is that opportunity and execution – with a nuanced understanding of risk – are better foundations for success. Prioritising the avoidance of risk above all else is more likely to lead to ossification and an inability to evolve and respond to opportunities.

Don’t over-optimise for now

Another problem with fixating on risks is that it results in over-optimising for your current challenges and environments. It hardens the organisational synapses to respond only to expected patterns and triggers. It can lead to obsessing about competitors rather than customers (or potential customers).

A parallel in human evolutionary terms is the ‘fight or flight’ reflex. Responding to competitors’ actions (price cuts, for example) may seem like a necessary adjustment in the moment. But it’s not necessarily good for maintaining long-term value or creating new options. In much the same way, being super-optimised at procuring the correct number of films, displaying them in suitable high street locations and pricing them appropriately was great business for Blockbuster - until it wasn’t. Once Netflix changed its business model from physical rental to streaming, the world changed quickly for everyone in the sector.

Because choice is more valuable than certainty

I would argue that you have to choose to be less safe to be able to move forward. Be ready to adapt to emerging possibilities. Where there is no risk, there is no opportunity and over-optimising for today reduces your options in the longer-term. What’s more, the longer the status quo is maintained, the harder it is to change.

The duality of risk and opportunity

So how do you properly balance risk and opportunity? There’s no precise formula that suits every scenario. It’s a qualitative decision rather than something quantifiable. It’s really about the thought process and your approach. The important thing is to ensure you’re clear about what you’re optimising for and where the initiative sits in your portfolio.

Are you optimising for innovation, scale, to maximise profitability, repeatability, differentiation or something else? It's crucial to be clear about your objective(s). Choosing the safe option would be entirely counter-productive if you're focused on innovation, for example.
What is the impact of failure compared to the value of complete or even partial success? Don’t just obsess about failure. Understand the best- and worst-case scenarios and how likely they are. I would argue that a 50% chance of success is worth much more than the cost of a 50% chance of failure.
What timeframe is the decision being made in? Is this a clear and present danger or a strategic threat? Weight the risk and opportunity accordingly. Are you competing in a marathon or a sprint? Conducting a thorough risk assessment before competing in a race over 100 metres will mean everyone else has finished before you begin.
Would you start a marathon if you did a risk assessment? The risk of injury, failure and investment is far too high for unquantifiable rewards. Is the intangible value of learning about yourself and what you can achieve worth taking risks for? Of course.
If you don’t get your reward now, is it worth doing? There are so many things in life with a long slow investment arc that only pay off over the longer term. Learning to play the guitar, having children and software development are three examples that spring to mind.
Can you change as the world around you changes? Are you clear about the value you deliver, rather than fixated on a specific business model? Netflix started life wanting to be better at renting DVDs than Blockbuster. Cheaper postal rates, lighter envelopes and bigger warehouses made them more efficient. However, like Blockbuster, they would have ceased to exist if they hadn't been aware of the world areound and adapted.

Create the right environment

Of course, this isn’t all about the individual and their choices. The teams, structures, and organisation around them play a massive part in permitting them to take risks and succeed. People need to have permission to prepare, try and, ultimately, fail. They need to understand that if they develop a clear plan, with sound research and a sensible rationale, whatever happens, the organisation supports them and seeks to learn from the activity.

Learn how to fail well - and go again

Failure is typically defined as being unsuccessful in achieving one’s goal. However, that’s a very singular view. Failing well means taking the success, learning and perspective gained from failure and repurposing to help improve with other opportunities.

It’s okay to feel bad about failure, of course, but you should recognise the learning and perspective that has come from it. Even more so, you should take that learning and perspective and feel good about how you can use it in the future. It’s okay to feel more than one thing at once.

So, in summary, question what you’re doing and ask yourself whether there’s a way to create opportunity? Seek to understand the rationale for what you’re being asked to do and explore whether there’s a better way to achieve the aim. Is there a way to make your actions create opportunity? Are the right questions being asked?